"The Conversation"website:WHAT WILL 2018 HOLD FOR THE MIDDLE EAST?
Wednesday 10/January/2018 - 12:24 PM
By JAMES L. GELVIN: It's always dangerous to make predictions about the Middle East.
After all، few experts foresaw Anwar al-Sadat's trip to Jerusalem in 1977، which led to the first peace treaty between Israel and an Arab state، nor did they predict the Iranian Revolution of 1978–79 or the Arab uprisings of 2010–11. Having taught and written about the Middle East for three decades، however، I feel confident in making the following forecast for the region in 2018.
THE SYRIAN CONFLICT WILL DRAG ON WITHOUT RESOLUTION
In Syria، the government will continue to reconquer territory، but will not be able to expand its control across the entire country.
There are four reasons for this.
First، regime opponents who have borne the brunt of the regime's brutality for the past seven years know better than to throw themselves on its mercy now. In the past، they have treated government offers of amnesty with scorn. They will continue to do so.
Second، the government is too weak. Most of the territorial gains the government made during the past two years were accomplished by subcontractors—Hezbollah، Iranian units، Iranian-trained and -controlled militias، and private militias—not by the depleted government forces.
Third، the overwhelming majority of opposition groups operate within the confines of a single province. This indicates that they are local forces under the control of a local power broker. Having experienced the lighter hand of the government for the past six years، they are unlikely to willingly surrender their hard-won autonomy. Finally، the Syrian civil war has been a proxy war. While that aid will certainly decline as a result of donor fatigue and logistical problems، it will probably not end. As a result، the opposition will not surrender from sheer exhaustion.
The former Arab League and United Nations peace envoy to Syria، Lakhdar Brahimi، will be proved correct. Several years ago، he predicted the Syrian civil war would end with the "Somalization" of Syria.
Like Somalia، Syria will have an internationally recognized government and permanent representation at the U.N. It will continue to issue and stamp passports and، if it so chooses، will send a team to the Olympics. However، like the government of Somalia، the government of Syria will reign، not rule، over the entirety of its internationally recognized borders. THE CALIPHATE WILL BE GONE، BUT NOT THE ISLAMIC STATE
If 2014 was the year in which ISIS seemed unstoppable، 2015 was the year the ISIS caliphate began to slide into oblivion.
At its height، ISIS controlled 40 percent of Iraq. At the beginning of 2017، that number slipped to 10 percent، and ISIS lost 70 percent of its territory in Syria. The caliphate also lost all the major towns it had taken. The caliphate is finished.
But what about ISIS، the movement? Some ISIS fighters have already given up. They have tried to melt into local populations or return home، although they have met resistance from populations out for vengeance and fearful foreign governments. For the rest، there are two likely scenarios. First، since a significant number of ISIS fighters from Iraq، along with their leaders، joined ISIS because they harbored grievances against the Shiite-dominated government in Iraq، it is entirely possible that they will continue to wage an insurgency against that government. This is just what the Taliban in Afghanistan did after the Americans overthrew their government.
Second، it is even more likely that former fighters and freelancers will continue their attacks globally، with or without organizational backing. The world is not lacking in gullible and disturbed individuals.
Nevertheless، because ISIS will lack a base from which to disseminate its sophisticated propaganda، and because the appeal of high-risk but ineffectual ideologies wane over time، so too will ISIS's appeal.
TRUMP'S "ULTIMATE DEAL?" GONE FOR NOW
When the United States recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel، it put another nail—quite possibly the final nail—into the coffin of the Oslo agreements، which set the parameters for negotiating a two-state solution.
In spite of the protestations from the Trump administration، an Israeli government secure in the embrace of the U.S. lacks incentive to concede anything. The U.S. has been down this road before، multiple times، and to no avail.
In addition، the polarized politics of the Middle East further erodes the possibility of resolving the conflict. In 2002، the Saudis proposed a peace plan: If Israel made peace with the Palestinians، the Arab states would normalize relations with it.
YEMEN WILL SINK FURTHER INTO THE ABYSS
Down the road، the most important underreported crisis in the Middle East is the war in Yemen.
The Saudis claim the Houthis—rebellious members of the dominant clan of Shiites who live mainly in the north of that country—are Iranian proxies.
The Saudis have engaged in a massive bombing campaign of civilian areas and have blockaded the ports of a country that is dependent on imports for 90 percent of its food. Yemen is the poorest Arab country. As a result of the Saudi campaign، which not only has killed 12،000 Yemenis but also has kept a civil war going، 50،000 children faced starvation at the end of 2017. Between April and August of 2017، 20،000 Yemenis died of cholera.
The U.S. supports the Saudi war effort. Yet، like Saudi Arabia، it accuses Iran of being the greatest purveyor of terrorism in the region.